Thursday, January 9, 2020

Impeachment impasse shows Pelosi's power Stephen Collinson Profile Analysis by Stephen Collinson, CNN Updated 1:06 AM ET, Fri January 10, 2020

(CNN)For someone who was for so long reluctant to impeach President Donald Trump, Nancy Pelosi has had a hard time letting go.
But some of the speaker's allies and Republican senators expect her to within hours begin the process of sending two articles of impeachment -- charging that Trump abused power and obstructed Congress -- to the Senate.
The eventual transfer would end a near-four week limbo since Pelosi's House of Representatives scarred Trump's legacy by making him only the third President to be impeached. The President was accused of using his power to coerce Ukraine into dishing dirt on Democrats, including Joe Biden, a possible 2020 election rival, and then withholding evidence to cover it up.
The House speaker may have now reached the point of diminishing returns in her strategy of holding up Trump's Senate trial to try to force the GOP to admit new evidence and witnesses.
    Pelosi argues that her tactic offered time for damning new evidence to emerge about what she says is Trump's abuse of the presidency in Ukraine. She has also repeatedly charged that Republicans are cooking up a sham trial with the President.
    But the interregnum may also have let the memory of shocking testimony revealing Trump's apparent misconduct to fade from public memory — potentially dampening the political potency of the case against the President.
    There have been clear signs in recent days that political patience with Pelosi's strategy has been wearing thin, even with Democrats.
    The unusual power play matching Pelosi against another Capitol Hill giant, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, allowed Pelosi to demonstrate the power of a majority Democrats believe was handed to them in midterm elections to curtail Trump.
    It also underscored her stature in Washington. She made clear that no one would tell her what to do. She demonstrated her control over her own troops when Rep. Adam Smith hastily backtracked on Thursday after urging her to get it over with and transmit the articles of impeachment (Smith later said he issued the clarifying statement because of constituent calls, not due to pressure from Pelosi).
    "I'm not delaying indefinitely. I'll send them over when I'm ready," Pelosi said on Thursday, after several Democrats in the Senate also called for her to break the logjam.

    Plenty of pressure

    But McConnell has piled pressure on the speaker.
    "If the Speaker continues to refuse to take her own accusations to trial, the Senate will move forward next week with the business of our people," McConnell said in a floor speech. "We will operate on the assumption that House Democrats are too embarrassed to ever move forward."
    When the stalemate eases and the Senate can finally make preparations for Trump's impeachment trial that could begin as soon as next week, there will be an accounting of what exactly Pelosi achieved.
    On the face of it, it doesn't look like much. But the speaker may have been playing a longer game while insisting she needed to know the shape of the Senate trial before naming her team of impeachment managers who will make the case against Trump.
    She failed to force McConnell to call witnesses and evidence that the White House refused to provide to House investigators, before the trial begins. Republicans have been adamant that there can be no expansion of the probe into Trump, sometimes citing dubious constitutional justifications.
    This was always likely to be the case. There's nothing the Senate, as an institution, likes less than to be ordered around by the House. Pelosi's delay may have actually caused wavering members of the House to line up behind their leader and agree to wait until the trial begins to consider witness subpoenas.
    McConnell has an increasingly brittle relationship with Pelosi, and there was never much chance that he would cave into her demands and attempt to shape the business of his chamber.
    Still, the speaker on Thursday made a case that her strategy had significantly worsened Trump's plight by giving time for more evidence — tying the President closer to the decision to withhold aid to Ukraine to emerge.

    Pelosi's delay aimed at helping Democrats

    During the standoff, emails also emerged from the Pentagon showing concern over delays in the nearly $400 million in military aid is accused of holding back to pressure Ukraine for political favors.
    Some observers were surprised that Pelosi did not claim victory and move on under political cover when former national security adviser John Bolton announced earlier this week that he would testify, if subpoenaed, in a Senate trial -- however unlikely that prospect still seems to be.
    Instead, Pelosi staked out a new confrontation with McConnell, telling her members in a letter on Tuesday night that she wouldn't hand over the articles of impeachment until the Majority leader released the text of a Senate resolution in impeachment trial rules. She dug in on Wednesday, saying that Democrats will wait to learn the terms of the trial before sending over the articles and naming impeachment managers.
    The delay in handing over the articles of impeachment also appeared to ruin Trump's holiday at his Florida resort. The President fulminated against Pelosi, day after day on Twitter. He still hasn't calmed down as he impatiently awaits the expected Senate acquittal that he will paint as validation.
    "Remember her 'speed & rush' in getting the Impeachment Hoax voted on & done. Well, she never sent the Articles to the Senate. Just another Democrat fraud. Presidential Harassment!" Trump wrote in a typically fraught tweet on Thursday.
    Pelosi's delay also helped her and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer cultivate the political terrain for the aftermath of a trial that is expected to easily acquit the President, owing to the lack of a two-thirds majority in the GOP-led Senate to make him the first President ejected from office by Congress.
    That message — that Trump is unfit and Republicans shielded a corrupt commander-in-chief -- will be at the center of the eventual Democratic nominee's campaign in the fall.
    "They don't want documents, the documentation. They don't want witnesses," Pelosi said. "They may want a dismissal, which is proof that they cannot -- cannot clear the President of the wrongdoing that he has put forth."
      But in recent days, it has become clear that even some Senate Democrats want to get the trial out of the way, and had begun to believe that Pelosi's delaying strategy had its moment.
      "I think you always run the risk that the delay runs into some other big thing happening - so that becomes another delay," said California Sen. Dianne Feinstein in a week when exactly that scenario played out — as Trump's showdown with Iran consumed both chambers of Congress.
      • PAID CONTENT

      U.S., Allies Believe Ukraine Plane Was Shot Down by Iran


      TIẾNG VIỆT
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      Giới hạn ký tự: 5000DỊCH 5000 KÝ TỰ TIẾP THEO
      Hoa Kỳ, Đồng minh tin rằng Máy bay Ukraine đã bị Iran bắn hạ
      Hoa Kỳ, Đồng minh tin rằng Máy bay Ukraine đã bị Iran bắn hạ
      HOA K A CÓ MỨC ĐỘ CAO CẤP CAO CẤP TRONG ĐÁNH GIÁ, SAYS CHÍNH THỨC; SHAPE CỦA L FINH VỰC DEBRIS VÀ CLAN CUNG CẤP IRANIAN

      Tại một đài tưởng niệm tạm thời tại sân bay quốc tế Kyiv Boryspil ở Ukraine, một người đàn ông cố gắng an ủi người bạn đời của một tiếp viên hàng không đã chết trong vụ tai nạn máy bay Ukraine ở Iran. ẢNH: HÌNH ẢNH IGOR GOLOVNIOV / HÌNH ẢNH / ÁP LỰC ZUMA
      Tác giả Nancy A. Youssef ở Washington, Aresu Eqbali ở Tehran, Georgi Kantchev ở Moscow và Rory Jones ở Dubai
      Cập nhật ngày 9 tháng 1 năm 2020 6:30 chiều ET
      IN
      BẢN VĂN
      1.205
      Các quan chức Hoa Kỳ, Canada và Hoa Kỳ tin rằng một chiếc máy bay thương mại của Ukraine đã bị rơi ngay sau khi cất cánh từ Tehran hôm thứ Tư, giết chết tất cả 176 người trên máy bay, đã bị hệ thống tên lửa của Iran bắn hạ, có thể do nhầm lẫn.
      Chúng tôi có một mức độ tin cậy cao rằng điều này đã bị Iran bắn hạ, một quan chức của Hoa Kỳ cho biết hôm thứ Năm, nói thêm rằng máy bay đang bị radar của Iran theo dõi dùng để nhắm tên lửa ngay trước khi hệ thống bị bắn. Một quan chức thứ hai cho biết Hoa Kỳ tin rằng Iran có thể đã bắn hạ máy bay do nhầm lẫn.
      Quan chức đầu tiên xác định vũ khí này là hệ thống tên lửa đất đối không SA-15 do Nga sản xuất, còn được gọi là Gauntlet.
      Iran đã tranh luận về lời buộc tội mà một phát ngôn viên của chính phủ gọi là lời nói dối lớn của người Hồi giáo.
      Một yếu tố góp phần vào đánh giá của Hoa Kỳ là lĩnh vực mảnh vỡ lớn tại địa điểm gặp nạn, một quan chức thứ hai cho biết. Các máy bay bị rơi do sự cố cơ học có các mảnh vụn hẹp hơn, quan chức này cho biết.
      Tổng thống Trump hôm thứ Năm nói rằng tôi có những nghi ngờ của tôi về vụ tai nạn, bày tỏ sự nghi ngờ trong nhận xét tại Nhà Trắng rằng nguyên nhân có thể là một vấn đề cơ học.
      Thủ tướng Canada Justin Trudeau và Thủ tướng Anh, ông Vladimir Johnson cũng cho biết hôm thứ Năm họ tin rằng chiếc máy bay đã bị bắn hạ bởi một hệ thống tên lửa đất đối không của Iran. Điều này có thể là vô tình, ông Trudeau nói với các phóng viên ở Ottawa về vụ tai nạn, đã giết chết ít nhất 63 người Canada. Ông nhắc lại sự thúc đẩy của mình cho một cuộc thăm dò đáng tin cậy vào nguyên nhân: Tôi muốn có câu trả lời.
      Trong khi Canada và Hoa Kỳ cho biết một tên lửa đã bị bắn, các quan chức Hoa Kỳ cho biết hai tên lửa đã được sử dụng.
      Máy bay Boeing 737-800 của Ukraine International Airlines rời thủ đô Iran Imam Khomeini trên sân bay quốc tế trên đường đến Kyiv, Ukraine vào sáng thứ Tư.
      Vụ tai nạn xảy ra vài giờ sau khi Iran tiến hành các cuộc tấn công tên lửa vào quân đội Hoa Kỳ tại hai căn cứ của Iraq để trả thù việc giết chết Thiếu tướng Iran, Tướng Qassem Soleimani. Thời điểm của những cuộc tấn công này đã đặt ra câu hỏi về việc máy bay của Ukraine bị hạ bởi một viên đạn.
      Chuyến bay 752 của hãng hàng không quốc tế Ukraine
      Chiếc Boeing 737-800 chở 176 người đã bị rơi bên ngoài Tehran ngay sau khi cất cánh.

      10 dặm
      Teheran
      10 km
      Chi tiết
      Teheran
      6:14 sáng Tín hiệu cuối cùng ở 7.925 feet
      IRAN
      IMAM KHOMEINI
      QUỐC TẾ
      SÂN BAY
      6:08 sáng taxi đến đường băng
      6:12 sáng
      2 dặm
      2 km

      Lưu ý: Tất cả thời gian là địa phương.

      Nguồn: Flightradar24 (đường bay); Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Earthstar Geographics, CNES / Airbus DS, USDA, USGS, AeroGRID, IGN, Cộng đồng người dùng GIS (hình ảnh)
      Ali Abedzadeh, người đứng đầu Tổ chức Hàng không Dân dụng Iran, nói với chương trình tin tức Iran Kênh Channel 2 rằng đó là một điều không thể xảy ra. Một tên lửa Iran đã bắn trúng máy bay phản lực. Làm thế nào hệ thống antiaircraft bắn nó? Đó là một khu vực an ninh, ông nói.
      Ông Abedzadeh nói rằng có tới chín máy bay khác đang bay trong khu vực vào thời điểm gặp nạn và hàng chục máy bay đang ở độ cao 25.000 feet. Các nhân chứng nhìn thấy chiếc máy bay rơi xuống đất trong ngọn lửa, ông nói. Nếu máy bay bị trúng tên lửa thì nó sẽ phát nổ, anh ấy nói.
      Theo một tuyên bố trên hãng tin ISNA, Ali Rabiei, người phát ngôn của chính phủ Iran, cho biết nước này tuyên bố sẽ tiến hành một cuộc điều tra nhanh chóng, minh bạch, chính xác, nhanh chóng.
      Một nguồn tin của Lầu Năm Góc, người đã không muốn tiết lộ tên của họ một cách oanh tạc đã báo cáo tin tức rằng máy bay Ukraine bị trúng hai tên lửa, anh nói. Khi trong tương lai, hóa ra không có sự thật nào đối với yêu sách này, sẽ không có ai chịu trách nhiệm cho lời nói dối lớn này.
      Ông Rabiei cho biết thêm, chúng tôi kêu gọi Boeing gửi đại diện của mình tham gia vào thủ tục kiểm tra hộp đen.
      Iran trước đó đã bác bỏ quan niệm về một hành động thù địch. Kể từ khi phi công người Ukraine đang cố gắng quay trở lại sân bay, một cuộc tấn công bằng tên lửa, tên lửa hoặc hệ thống phòng thủ của đất nước đã hết thời, ông Hassan Rezaifar, người đứng đầu ủy ban điều tra các vụ tai nạn của Iran cho biết. đại lý. Không có phần tên lửa nào được tìm thấy trong hiện trường vụ tai nạn.
      Các quan chức Iran khác được trích dẫn bởi hãng thông tấn nhà nước cho biết chiếc máy bay đã bị lỗi kỹ thuật, rằng nó đã bắt đầu quay trở lại sân bay Tehran, và đã bốc cháy trước khi nó chạm đất. Họ cho biết máy bay phản lực đã đạt tới 8.000 feet trước khi biến mất khỏi radar.
      Cuộc điều tra dự kiến ​​sẽ là particula

      U.S., Allies Believe Ukraine Plane Was Shot Down by Iran

      https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-jet-was-on-fire-before-crash-iran-says-11578558346?emailToken=41b56deaee2c5362b396a8d72f9fc0682xp7U5SGoaOP616ImAqjt8sBkQ5JvRupCIySxvLo%20i0%


      U.S., Allies Believe Ukraine Plane Was Shot Down by Iran

      The U.S. has a ‘high level of confidence’ in the assessment, official says; shape of debris field and Iranian radar provide clues

      At a makeshift memorial at Kyiv Boryspil International Airport in Ukraine, a man tries to comfort the spouse of a deceased flight attendant killed in the crash of a Ukrainian airliner in Iran. PHOTO: IGOR GOLOVNIOV/SOPA IMAGES/ZUMA PRESS
      U.S., Canadian and U.K. officials believe that a Ukrainian commercial aircraft that crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran on Wednesday, killing all 176 people on board, was downed by a missile system fired by Iran, possibly by mistake.
      “We have a high level of confidence that this was shot down by Iran,” one U.S. official said Thursday, adding that the plane was being tracked by Iranian radar used to aim missiles just before the system was fired. A second official said the U.S. believes Iran may have shot down the aircraft by mistake.
      The first official identified the weapon as a Russian-made SA-15 surface-to-air missile system, also referred to as the Gauntlet.
      Iran disputed the accusation, which a government spokesman called a “big lie.”
      One factor contributing to the U.S. assessment was the large field of debris at the crash site, a second official said. Planes that crash as a result of mechanical failure have narrower debris fields, the official said.
      President Trump on Thursday said “I have my suspicions” about the crash, voicing doubt in remarks at the White House that the cause may have been a mechanical problem.
      Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson also said Thursday they believe the plane was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile system. “This may well have been unintentional,” Mr. Trudeau told reporters in Ottawa of the crash, which killed at least 63 Canadians. He reiterated his push for a credible probe into the cause: “I want answers.”
      While Canada and the U.K. said one missile was fired, the U.S. officials said two were used.
      The Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737-800 plane departed the Iranian capital’s Imam Khomeini International Airport en route to Kyiv, Ukraine early Wednesday.
      The crash came hours after Iran launched missile attacks on U.S. troops at two Iraqi bases in retaliation for the killing of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani. The timing of those attacks raised questions about whether the Ukrainian airliner was downed by a projectile.

      Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752

      The Boeing 737-800 carrying 176 people crashed outside Tehran shortly after takeoff.

      10 miles
      Tehran
      10 km
      Detail
      Tehran
      6:14 a.m. Last signal at 7,925 feet
      IRAN
      IMAM KHOMEINI
      INTERNATIONAL
      AIRPORT
      6:08 a.m. Taxiing to runway
      6:12 a.m. Takeoff
      2 miles
      2 km
      Note: All times are local.
      Sources: Flightradar24 (flight path); Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Earthstar Geographics, CNES/Airbus DS, USDA, USGS, AeroGRID, IGN, the GIS User Community (image)
      Ali Abedzadeh, head of Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization, told Iran’s Channel 2 news program that it was “not possible” an Iranian missile had hit the jet. “How would the antiaircraft system shoot it? It wasn’t a security area,” he said.
      Mr. Abedzadeh said that up to nine other planes were flying in the area at the time of the crash and dozens of aircraft were at an altitude of 25,000 feet. Witnesses saw the plane fall to the ground in flames, he said. “If the plane was hit by a missile it would have exploded,” he said.
      Ali Rabiei, Iran’s government spokesman, said the country vowed to conduct a “fully transparent, precise, quick” investigation, according to a statement on news agency ISNA.
      “A Pentagon source who didn’t want to reveal their name bombastically reported the news that the Ukrainian plane was hit by two missiles,” he said. “When in the future it turns out that there is no truth to this claim, no one will take responsibility for this big lie.”
      Mr. Rabiei added, “We call on Boeing to send its representative to participate in the procedure of examining the black box.”
      Iran earlier rejected the notion of a hostile act. “Since the Ukrainian pilot was trying to return to the airport, a rocket, missile strike or the country’s defense system is out of question,” said Hassan Rezaifar, head of Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization commission for accidents investigation, as quoted by Iran’s state news agency. “No missile part was found in the crash scene.”
      Other Iranian officials quoted by the state news agency said the plane had suffered a technical fault, that it had started to turn back toward Tehran’s airport and was already on fire before it hit the ground. They said the jet had reached 8,000 feet before disappearing from radar.
      The investigation is expected to be particularly thorny, with heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran over the killing of the top Iranian general likely to complicate international cooperation.
      A spokesperson for Ukraine International Airlines didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
      “Ukraine is interested in finding the truth. Therefore, I ask all our international partners: if you have any evidence to assist the investigation, please provide it,” said a spokeswoman for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
      A Ukrainian official said that while Ukrainian investigators haven’t reached a firm conclusion, a missile strike seems increasingly likely.
      A U.S. official familiar with the matter said Wednesday that data transmitted via satellite indicated everything was normal on the jetliner until the sudden loss of data and the fatal dive. That data suggest to some U.S. air-safety officials that there may have been a hostile act, said the official.
      The last high-profile shootdown of a commercial airliner occurred in eastern Ukraine in 2014, when pro-Russian separatists battling the government downed a Malaysian plane with a surface-to-air missile. All 298 people on board the Boeing 777 died. International investigators said later the missile was Russian-made.
      In 1988, the U.S. Navy’s Vincennes warship downed Iran Air Flight 655 with an air-defense missile. U.S. officials said they mistook the Airbus SE A300 airliner for a combat plane they feared would attack the ship. All 290 people on the plane died.
      A report from the Iranian civil aviation regulator said the search operation for the Ukrainian jet found the so-called black boxes, including the flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder. Both caught fire in the crash and were damaged, but the memories of the recorders remained in good condition, the report said.
      A team of 45 Ukrainian experts and officials arrived in Tehran early Thursday and will be involved in decoding the black boxes and identifying and repatriating bodies. The team had already collected DNA samples from relatives of the victims in Ukraine.
      “The priority for Ukraine is to establish the causes of the crash,” Mr. Zelensky said. Ukraine said the president spoke by phone with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who pledged full cooperation in the investigation, including sharing all data with Ukrainian officials on the ground in Tehran.
      However, it wasn’t clear how much access U.S. investigators will get to the crash site, given the current animosity between the two countries. Iran’s Mr. Rezaifar said the probe would be conducted according to standards set by the International Civil Aviation Organization, and in its initial report on the crash the regulator said it “would like to invite all the states involved in the accident to participate.”

      SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

      How does the strained relationship between the U.S. and Iran complicate the investigation into this crash? Join the conversation below.
      Based on ICAO’s convention, the home country of the airline and the makers of the plane and its major systems each are entitled to appoint a representative to participate in crash probes. That, in theory, includes the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board and Boeing Co.
      Boeing has said it is in contact with Ukraine International Airlines and is ready to assist in any way. Determining what went wrong is critical to the plane maker, which already is dealing with the grounding of its best-selling 737 MAX fleet after two fatal crashes involving that jet.
      The plane that crashed, a 737-800, is the most popular version of the aerospace giant’s workhorse jet. The model and its variants account for around 25% of all commercial jetliners in operation, enjoying one of the industry’s best safety records.